Fakel Voronezh vs Akhmat: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fakel Voronezhvs
AkhmatThe model puts Akhmat at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Akhmat.
- −The head-to-head record favours Fakel Voronezh (5-3-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fakel Voronezh have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Akhmat have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fakel Voronezh have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Akhmat is priced at 2.336.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fakel Voronezh at 31%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Akhmat at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Fakel Voronezh is priced at 3.185. The draw is priced at 3.2. Akhmat is priced at 2.336.
Fakel Voronezh have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Akhmat have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fakel Voronezh have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Akhmat have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fakel Voronezh or Akhmat?
Our model rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fakel Voronezh vs Akhmat?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 10 meetings: 5 Fakel Voronezh wins, 3 draws, 2 Akhmat wins.
Odds movement
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zenit Saint Petersburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Krasnodar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Baltika Kaliningrad | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 5 |  Dynamo Makhachkala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 6 |  CSKA Moscow | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Orenburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 8 |  Rubin Kazan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 9 |  Rostov | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | 2 |
| 11 |  Lokomotiv Moscow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 12 | Akhmat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 13 |  Dynamo Moscow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 14 | Fakel Voronezh | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 0 |
| 15 |  Rodina Moscow | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 16 |  Akron Tolyatti | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.