Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika Kaliningrad: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Krylia Sovetovvs
Baltika KaliningradThe model puts Baltika Kaliningrad at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Baltika Kaliningrad.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Krylia Sovetov have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Baltika Kaliningrad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Baltika Kaliningrad is priced at 2.416.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Krylia Sovetov at 33%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Baltika Kaliningrad at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Krylia Sovetov is priced at 3.144. The draw is priced at 3.115. Baltika Kaliningrad is priced at 2.416.
Krylia Sovetov have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Baltika Kaliningrad have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Krylia Sovetov have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Baltika Kaliningrad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Krylia Sovetov or Baltika Kaliningrad?
Our model rates Baltika Kaliningrad as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika Kaliningrad?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Krylia Sovetov wins, 1 draws, 3 Baltika Kaliningrad wins.
Odds movement
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zenit Saint Petersburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Krasnodar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Dynamo Makhachkala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  CSKA Moscow | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 6 |  Orenburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 7 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 8 |  Rubin Kazan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 9 |  Rostov | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 11 |  Lokomotiv Moscow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 12 |  Akhmat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 13 |  Dynamo Moscow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Fakel Voronezh | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 0 |
| 15 |  Rodina Moscow | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 16 |  Akron Tolyatti | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.