Universidad de Concepcion vs Audax Italiano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Universidad de Concepcionvs
Audax ItalianoThe model puts Universidad de Concepcion at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Universidad de Concepcion.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Universidad de Concepcion have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Audax Italiano have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Universidad de Concepcion have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Universidad de Concepcion is priced at 2.45.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Universidad de Concepcion at 39%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Audax Italiano at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Universidad de Concepcion is priced at 2.45. The draw is priced at 3.25. Audax Italiano is priced at 2.5.
Universidad de Concepcion have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Audax Italiano have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Universidad de Concepcion have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Universidad de Concepcion are on 2 wins in a row. Audax Italiano have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Universidad de Concepcion or Audax Italiano?
Our model rates Universidad de Concepcion as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Universidad de Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Universidad de Concepcion wins, 1 draws, 3 Audax Italiano wins.
League table
Chile. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colo-Colo | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 32:13 | 39 |
| 2 |  Universidad Catolica Santiago | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 38:23 | 27 |
| 3 |  Universidad de Chile | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 19:11 | 27 |
| 4 |  Nublense | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 20:19 | 25 |
| 5 |  Coquimbo Unido | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 22:18 | 24 |
| 6 |  Huachipato | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 26:25 | 24 |
| 7 |  Palestino | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23:23 | 24 |
| 8 |  Everton de Vina del Mar | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 9 |  Deportes Limache | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 31:26 | 21 |
| 10 |  O'Higgins | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 19:24 | 20 |
| 11 |  Deportes La Serena | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 24:28 | 19 |
| 12 | Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:26 | 19 |
| 13 |  Club Deportes Concepcion | 16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 16:23 | 17 |
| 14 | Audax Italiano | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 19:23 | 16 |
| 15 |  Cobresal | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 22:32 | 14 |
| 16 |  Union La Calera | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 15:29 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.