Ordabasy vs Tobol Kostanay: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ordabasyvs
Tobol KostanayThe model puts Ordabasy at 61%. The model leans toward Ordabasy. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ordabasy (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ordabasy have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tobol Kostanay have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ordabasy have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ordabasy is priced at 1.579.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Ordabasy at 61%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Tobol Kostanay at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Ordabasy. Ordabasy is priced at 1.579. The draw is priced at 3.515. Tobol Kostanay is priced at 6.83.
Ordabasy have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Tobol Kostanay have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Ordabasy have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Tobol Kostanay have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ordabasy or Tobol Kostanay?
Our model rates Ordabasy as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ordabasy vs Tobol Kostanay?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Ordabasy wins, 0 draws, 2 Tobol Kostanay wins.
League table
Kazakhstan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kairat | 20 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 39:14 | 45 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 34:15 | 43 |
| 3 |  Astana | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | 32 |
| 4 |  Aktobe | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 28:21 | 31 |
| 5 |  Okzhetpes | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 25:26 | 30 |
| 6 |  Elimai | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26:23 | 27 |
| 7 |  Ulytau | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 16:18 | 27 |
| 8 | Tobol Kostanay | 19 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 21:26 | 22 |
| 9 |  Jenis | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 17:23 | 22 |
| 10 |  Caspiy Aktau | 19 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 19:25 | 21 |
| 11 |  Kaysar | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15:22 | 20 |
| 12 |  Kyzylzhar | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 20:27 | 19 |
| 13 |  Atyrau | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13:17 | 18 |
| 14 |  Zhetysu | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 22:29 | 18 |
| 15 |  Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 15:26 | 16 |
| 16 |  Irtysh Pavlodar | 18 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 16:23 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.