Gremio Porto Alegrense vs Sao Paulo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gremio Porto Alegrensevs
Sao PauloThe model puts Gremio Porto Alegrense at 45%. The model leans toward Gremio Porto Alegrense. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Gremio Porto Alegrense score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Recent form favours Gremio Porto Alegrense.
- +Gremio Porto Alegrense creates more chances (15 vs 10 shots per game).
- +The head-to-head record favours Gremio Porto Alegrense (4-0-2).
- −Sao Paulo controls more of the ball (47% vs 56%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Gremio Porto Alegrense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sao Paulo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gremio Porto Alegrense have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Gremio Porto Alegrense is priced at 2.42.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gremio Porto Alegrense at 45%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Sao Paulo at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Gremio Porto Alegrense is priced at 2.42. The draw is priced at 3.22. Sao Paulo is priced at 3.025.
Gremio Porto Alegrense have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Sao Paulo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Gremio Porto Alegrense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Sao Paulo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Gremio Porto Alegrense average 2 goals per game this season. Gremio Porto Alegrense average 47% possession. Sao Paulo average 1 goals per game this season. Sao Paulo average 56% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gremio Porto Alegrense or Sao Paulo?
Our model rates Gremio Porto Alegrense as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gremio Porto Alegrense vs Sao Paulo?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Gremio Porto Alegrense wins, 0 draws, 2 Sao Paulo wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 38:16 | 47 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37:18 | 39 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 28:19 | 37 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 30:25 | 34 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29:25 | 32 |
| 6 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 7 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 27:30 | 30 |
| 8 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34:32 | 29 |
| 9 |  Corinthians Paulista | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 22:20 | 29 |
| 10 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 25:25 | 28 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 25:28 | 27 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 22:31 | 26 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 23:27 | 23 |
| 15 |  Santos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 29:33 | 22 |
| 16 |  Sport Club Internacional | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 23:27 | 22 |
| 17 | Gremio Porto Alegrense | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 22:26 | 22 |
| 18 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:31 | 21 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 24:34 | 21 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 19:41 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.