Flamengo vs EC Vitoria Salvador: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Flamengovs
EC Vitoria SalvadorThe model puts Flamengo at 75%. The model leans toward Flamengo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours EC Vitoria Salvador.
- +Flamengo score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours EC Vitoria Salvador (1-1-4).
- +Flamengo creates more chances (17 vs 10 shots per game).
- +Flamengo controls more of the ball (56% vs 45%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Flamengo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- EC Vitoria Salvador have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Flamengo have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Flamengo is priced at 1.22.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Flamengo at 75%. The model puts the draw at 13%. The model puts EC Vitoria Salvador at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Flamengo. Flamengo is priced at 1.22. The draw is priced at 6.3. EC Vitoria Salvador is priced at 13.5.
Flamengo have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. EC Vitoria Salvador have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Flamengo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. EC Vitoria Salvador have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Flamengo average 2 goals per game this season. Flamengo average 56% possession. EC Vitoria Salvador average 1 goals per game this season. EC Vitoria Salvador average 45% possession.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Flamengo or EC Vitoria Salvador?
Our model rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Flamengo vs EC Vitoria Salvador?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Flamengo wins, 1 draws, 4 EC Vitoria Salvador wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 38:16 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37:18 | 39 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 28:19 | 37 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 30:25 | 34 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29:25 | 32 |
| 6 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 7 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 27:30 | 30 |
| 8 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34:32 | 29 |
| 9 |  Corinthians Paulista | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 22:20 | 29 |
| 10 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 25:25 | 28 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 25:28 | 27 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 13 | EC Vitoria Salvador | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 22:31 | 26 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 23:27 | 23 |
| 15 |  Santos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 29:33 | 22 |
| 16 |  Sport Club Internacional | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 23:27 | 22 |
| 17 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 22:26 | 22 |
| 18 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:31 | 21 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 24:34 | 21 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 19:41 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.