Red Bull Bragantino vs Corinthians Paulista: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Red Bull Bragantinovs
Corinthians PaulistaThe model puts Red Bull Bragantino at 47%. The model leans toward Red Bull Bragantino. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Red Bull Bragantino score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Red Bull Bragantino creates more chances (16 vs 12 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Red Bull Bragantino have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Corinthians Paulista have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Red Bull Bragantino have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Red Bull Bragantino is priced at 2.18.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Red Bull Bragantino at 47%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Corinthians Paulista at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Red Bull Bragantino. Red Bull Bragantino is priced at 2.18. The draw is priced at 3.2. Corinthians Paulista is priced at 3.54.
Red Bull Bragantino have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Corinthians Paulista have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Red Bull Bragantino have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Corinthians Paulista have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Red Bull Bragantino average 2 goals per game this season. Red Bull Bragantino average 52% possession. Corinthians Paulista average 1 goals per game this season. Corinthians Paulista average 54% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Red Bull Bragantino or Corinthians Paulista?
Our model rates Red Bull Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Red Bull Bragantino vs Corinthians Paulista?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Red Bull Bragantino wins, 1 draws, 3 Corinthians Paulista wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 38:16 | 47 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37:18 | 39 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 28:19 | 37 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 30:25 | 34 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29:25 | 32 |
| 6 | Red Bull Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 7 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 27:30 | 30 |
| 8 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34:32 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians Paulista | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 22:20 | 29 |
| 10 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 25:25 | 28 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 25:28 | 27 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 22:31 | 26 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 23:27 | 23 |
| 15 |  Santos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 29:33 | 22 |
| 16 |  Sport Club Internacional | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 23:27 | 22 |
| 17 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 22:26 | 22 |
| 18 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:31 | 21 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 24:34 | 21 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 19:41 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.