Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas vs Fluminense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatasvs
FluminenseThe model puts Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Fluminense controls more of the ball (47% vs 59%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fluminense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas is priced at 2.6.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas at 38%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Fluminense at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas is priced at 2.6. The draw is priced at 3.115. Fluminense is priced at 2.88.
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Fluminense have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Fluminense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas average 2 goals per game this season. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas average 47% possession. Fluminense average 1 goals per game this season. Fluminense average 59% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas or Fluminense?
Our model rates Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas vs Fluminense?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas wins, 0 draws, 3 Fluminense wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 38:16 | 47 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37:18 | 39 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 28:19 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 30:25 | 34 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29:25 | 32 |
| 6 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 7 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 27:30 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34:32 | 29 |
| 9 |  Corinthians Paulista | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 22:20 | 29 |
| 10 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 25:25 | 28 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 25:28 | 27 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 22:31 | 26 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 23:27 | 23 |
| 15 |  Santos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 29:33 | 22 |
| 16 |  Sport Club Internacional | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 23:27 | 22 |
| 17 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 22:26 | 22 |
| 18 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:31 | 21 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 24:34 | 21 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 19:41 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.