Cruzeiro Esporte Clube vs Mirassol: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cruzeiro Esporte Clubevs
MirassolThe model puts Cruzeiro Esporte Clube at 57%. The model leans toward Cruzeiro Esporte Clube. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Cruzeiro Esporte Clube score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Mirassol.
- +Cruzeiro Esporte Clube creates more chances (15 vs 11 shots per game).
- +Cruzeiro Esporte Clube controls more of the ball (58% vs 52%).
- −The head-to-head record favours Mirassol (0-2-1).
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mirassol have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube is priced at 1.696.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Cruzeiro Esporte Clube at 57%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Mirassol at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Cruzeiro Esporte Clube. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube is priced at 1.696. The draw is priced at 3.74. Mirassol is priced at 5.05.
Mirassol have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Mirassol have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cruzeiro Esporte Clube average 2 goals per game this season. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube average 58% possession. Mirassol average 1 goals per game this season. Mirassol average 52% possession.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cruzeiro Esporte Clube or Mirassol?
Our model rates Cruzeiro Esporte Clube as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cruzeiro Esporte Clube vs Mirassol?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Cruzeiro Esporte Clube wins, 2 draws, 1 Mirassol wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 38:16 | 47 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37:18 | 39 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 28:19 | 37 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 30:25 | 34 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29:25 | 32 |
| 6 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 27:30 | 30 |
| 8 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34:32 | 29 |
| 9 |  Corinthians Paulista | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 22:20 | 29 |
| 10 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 25:25 | 28 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 25:28 | 27 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 22:31 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 23:27 | 23 |
| 15 |  Santos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 29:33 | 22 |
| 16 |  Sport Club Internacional | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 23:27 | 22 |
| 17 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 22:26 | 22 |
| 18 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:31 | 21 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 24:34 | 21 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 19:41 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.