Velez Sarsfield vs CA Independiente Avellaneda: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Velez Sarsfieldvs
CA Independiente AvellanedaThe model puts Velez Sarsfield at 35%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Velez Sarsfield.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Velez Sarsfield have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CA Independiente Avellaneda have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Velez Sarsfield is priced at 2.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Velez Sarsfield at 35%. The model puts the draw at 33%. The model puts CA Independiente Avellaneda at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Velez Sarsfield is priced at 2.66. The draw is priced at 2.843. CA Independiente Avellaneda is priced at 3.075.
Velez Sarsfield have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. CA Independiente Avellaneda have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Velez Sarsfield have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. CA Independiente Avellaneda have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Velez Sarsfield or CA Independiente Avellaneda?
Our model rates Velez Sarsfield as the most likely outcome at 35% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Velez Sarsfield vs CA Independiente Avellaneda?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Velez Sarsfield wins, 2 draws, 2 CA Independiente Avellaneda wins.
Odds movement
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 | CA Independiente Avellaneda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Newell's Old Boys | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 5 |  Defensa y Justicia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Riestra | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 7 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Platense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 12 |  Union de Santa Fe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 13 |  Boca Juniors | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 14 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 15 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.