Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Atletico Sarmiento Juninvs
Independiente RivadaviaThe model puts Independiente Rivadavia at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Independiente Rivadavia is priced at 2.292.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin at 27%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Independiente Rivadavia at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin is priced at 3.51. The draw is priced at 3.015. Independiente Rivadavia is priced at 2.292.
Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Independiente Rivadavia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Independiente Rivadavia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin or Independiente Rivadavia?
Our model rates Independiente Rivadavia as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin wins, 1 draws, 3 Independiente Rivadavia wins.
Odds movement
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Velez Sarsfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Newell's Old Boys | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 5 |  Defensa y Justicia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Riestra | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 7 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Platense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 12 |  Union de Santa Fe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 13 |  Boca Juniors | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 14 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 15 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.