Cobresal vs Union La Calera: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cobresalvs
Union La CaleraThe model puts Cobresal at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cobresal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Union La Calera have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cobresal have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cobresal is priced at 2.32.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cobresal at 39%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Union La Calera at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Cobresal is priced at 2.32. The draw is priced at 3.15. Union La Calera is priced at 2.856.
Cobresal have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Union La Calera have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cobresal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Union La Calera have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cobresal or Union La Calera?
Our model rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Cobresal wins, 1 draws, 2 Union La Calera wins.
League table
Chile. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colo-Colo | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 32:13 | 39 |
| 2 |  Universidad Catolica Santiago | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 38:23 | 27 |
| 3 |  Universidad de Chile | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 19:11 | 27 |
| 4 |  Nublense | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 20:19 | 25 |
| 5 |  Coquimbo Unido | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 22:18 | 24 |
| 6 |  Huachipato | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 26:25 | 24 |
| 7 |  Palestino | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23:23 | 24 |
| 8 |  Everton de Vina del Mar | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 9 |  Deportes Limache | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 31:26 | 21 |
| 10 |  O'Higgins | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 19:24 | 20 |
| 11 |  Deportes La Serena | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 24:28 | 19 |
| 12 |  Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:26 | 19 |
| 13 |  Club Deportes Concepcion | 16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 16:23 | 17 |
| 14 |  Audax Italiano | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 19:23 | 16 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 22:32 | 14 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 15:29 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.