Box Hill United vs Keilor Park: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Box Hill Unitedvs
Keilor ParkThe model puts Box Hill United at 47%. The model leans toward Box Hill United. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Box Hill United.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Box Hill United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Keilor Park have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Box Hill United is priced at 2.03.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Box Hill United at 47%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Keilor Park at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Box Hill United. Box Hill United is priced at 2.03. The draw is priced at 3.54. Keilor Park is priced at 3.06.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Box Hill United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Box Hill United are on 2 wins in a row. Keilor Park have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Box Hill United or Keilor Park?
Our model rates Box Hill United as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Box Hill United vs Keilor Park?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Box Hill United wins, 1 draws, 0 Keilor Park wins.
Odds movement
League table
Australia. Victoria Premier League 2| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Goulburn Valley Suns | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 48:28 | 48 |
| 2 |  Malvern City | 21 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 51:24 | 46 |
| 3 |  Essendon Royals | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 54:33 | 41 |
| 4 |  Bayside Argonauts | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40:29 | 38 |
| 5 | Keilor Park | 21 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 29:28 | 34 |
| 6 | Box Hill United | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 33:26 | 33 |
| 7 |  Whittlesea United | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 32:24 | 29 |
| 8 |  Springvale White Eagles | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 26:39 | 26 |
| 9 |  Eastern Lions | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 32:28 | 25 |
| 10 |  Nunawading City | 21 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 21:34 | 25 |
| 11 |  Werribee City | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 31:41 | 21 |
| 12 |  Kingston City | 21 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 23:47 | 20 |
| 13 |  Altona City | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 18:31 | 17 |
| 14 |  Moreland City | 20 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 24:50 | 12 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.