Inter Santa Tecla vs Aguila: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Inter Santa Teclavs
AguilaThe model puts Inter Santa Tecla at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Inter Santa Tecla.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Inter Santa Tecla have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aguila have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inter Santa Tecla have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Inter Santa Tecla is priced at 2.5.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Inter Santa Tecla at 39%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Aguila at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Inter Santa Tecla is priced at 2.5. The draw is priced at 3.04. Aguila is priced at 2.61.
Inter Santa Tecla have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Aguila have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Inter Santa Tecla have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Aguila have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Inter Santa Tecla or Aguila?
Our model rates Inter Santa Tecla as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Inter Santa Tecla vs Aguila?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Inter Santa Tecla wins, 0 draws, 2 Aguila wins.
Odds movement
League table
El Salvador. Primera Division - Apertura| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  C.D. Luis Angel Firpo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 4 |
| 2 |  Isidro Metapan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Alianza San Salvador | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  FAS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  CD Cacahuatique | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 6 |  C.D. Municipal Limeno | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 7 | Aguila | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  CD Platense Zacatecoluca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 | Inter Santa Tecla | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 10 |  Atletico Balboa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 11 |  Fuerte San Francisco | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:5 | 1 |
| 12 |  INCA Aruba | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.