Herediano vs Marathon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Heredianovs
MarathonThe model puts Herediano at 48%. The model leans toward Herediano. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Herediano have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Herediano is priced at 1.9.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 19 | 12 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Herediano at 48%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Marathon at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Herediano. Herediano is priced at 1.9. The draw is priced at 3.18. Marathon is priced at 3.835.
Herediano have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 28% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Herediano or Marathon?
Our model rates Herediano as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Herediano vs Marathon?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
CONCACAF Central American Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Diriangen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 2 |  Alajuelense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  C.D. Luis Angel Firpo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Xelaju | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 5 |  Club Deportivo Plaza Amador | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.