Unidos Alvorada vs Penarol: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Unidos Alvoradavs
PenarolThe model puts Unidos Alvorada at 58%. The model leans toward Unidos Alvorada. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Unidos Alvorada.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Unidos Alvorada have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Penarol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Unidos Alvorada have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Unidos Alvorada is priced at 1.62.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Unidos Alvorada at 58%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Penarol at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Unidos Alvorada. Unidos Alvorada is priced at 1.62. The draw is priced at 3.74. Penarol is priced at 4.625.
Unidos Alvorada have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Unidos Alvorada have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Unidos Alvorada are on 2 wins in a row. Penarol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Unidos Alvorada or Penarol?
Our model rates Unidos Alvorada as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Unidos Alvorada vs Penarol?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Unidos Alvorada wins, 0 draws, 0 Penarol wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Amazonense. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CDC Manicore | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 2 |  Fast Clube | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | Penarol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Operario Amazonas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 | Unidos Alvorada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  RB do Norte | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Atletico Cliper | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.