Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Crvena Zvezda: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hapoel Be'er Shevavs
Crvena ZvezdaThe model puts Crvena Zvezda at 45%. The model leans toward Crvena Zvezda. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Crvena Zvezda.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Hapoel Be'er Sheva have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Crvena Zvezda have 4 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Crvena Zvezda is priced at 2.21.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Hapoel Be'er Sheva at 29%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Crvena Zvezda at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Crvena Zvezda. Hapoel Be'er Sheva is priced at 3.195. The draw is priced at 3.48. Crvena Zvezda is priced at 2.21.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva have 1 wins in their last 3 matches. Crvena Zvezda have 4 wins in their last 4 matches. Crvena Zvezda are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 75% for both teams to score. The model gives 77% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hapoel Be'er Sheva or Crvena Zvezda?
Our model rates Crvena Zvezda as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Crvena Zvezda?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.