Ararat - Armenia vs Celje: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ararat - Armeniavs
CeljeThe model puts Celje at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Celje.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ararat - Armenia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Celje have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ararat - Armenia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Celje is priced at 2.455.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Ararat - Armenia at 32%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Celje at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Ararat - Armenia is priced at 2.925. The draw is priced at 3.28. Celje is priced at 2.455.
Ararat - Armenia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Ararat - Armenia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Celje have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ararat - Armenia or Celje?
Our model rates Celje as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ararat - Armenia vs Celje?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Ararat - Armenia wins, 0 draws, 0 Celje wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.