Inverness vs Dunfermline Athletic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Invernessvs
Dunfermline AthleticThe model puts Inverness at 35%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Inverness have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dunfermline Athletic have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inverness is priced at 2.56.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Inverness at 35%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Dunfermline Athletic at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Inverness is priced at 2.56. The draw is priced at 3.04. Dunfermline Athletic is priced at 2.56.
Dunfermline Athletic have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Inverness have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Dunfermline Athletic have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Inverness or Dunfermline Athletic?
Our model rates Inverness as the most likely outcome at 35% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Inverness vs Dunfermline Athletic?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Inverness wins, 5 draws, 1 Dunfermline Athletic wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inverness | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Livingston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Greenock Morton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Partick Thistle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Ayr United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Queen's Park | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Raith Rovers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Stenhousemuir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 | Dunfermline Athletic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.