AGF Aarhus vs Sabah Baku: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AGF Aarhusvs
Sabah BakuThe model puts AGF Aarhus at 65%. The model leans toward AGF Aarhus. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sabah Baku.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- AGF Aarhus have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Sabah Baku have 4 wins in their last 4 matches.
- AGF Aarhus is priced at 1.425.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AGF Aarhus at 65%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Sabah Baku at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward AGF Aarhus. AGF Aarhus is priced at 1.425. The draw is priced at 4.58. Sabah Baku is priced at 7.5.
AGF Aarhus have 1 wins in their last 3 matches. Sabah Baku have 4 wins in their last 4 matches. Sabah Baku are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 66% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AGF Aarhus or Sabah Baku?
Our model rates AGF Aarhus as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AGF Aarhus vs Sabah Baku?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.