Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Raith Roversvs
StenhousemuirThe model puts Raith Rovers at 56%. The model leans toward Raith Rovers. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Stenhousemuir.
- +The head-to-head record favours Raith Rovers (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Raith Rovers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stenhousemuir have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Raith Rovers have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Raith Rovers is priced at 1.591.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Raith Rovers at 56%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Stenhousemuir at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Raith Rovers. Raith Rovers is priced at 1.591. The draw is priced at 3.48. Stenhousemuir is priced at 5.43.
Raith Rovers have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Stenhousemuir have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Raith Rovers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Stenhousemuir have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Stenhousemuir are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Raith Rovers or Stenhousemuir?
Our model rates Raith Rovers as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Raith Rovers wins, 1 draws, 1 Stenhousemuir wins.
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inverness | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Livingston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Greenock Morton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Partick Thistle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Ayr United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Queen's Park | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 | Raith Rovers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | Stenhousemuir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.