Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fenerbahcevs
Sturm GrazThe model puts Fenerbahce at 62%. The model leans toward Fenerbahce. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sturm Graz.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fenerbahce have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fenerbahce have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fenerbahce is priced at 1.5.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fenerbahce at 62%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Sturm Graz at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce is priced at 1.5. The draw is priced at 4.38. Sturm Graz is priced at 6.35.
Fenerbahce have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fenerbahce have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Sturm Graz have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Sturm Graz are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fenerbahce or Sturm Graz?
Our model rates Fenerbahce as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Fenerbahce wins, 1 draws, 0 Sturm Graz wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.