Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Benficavs
Heart of MidlothianThe model puts Benfica at 81%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Benfica is priced at 1.175.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | 19 | 6 | ||||
| 3 | 15 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 9 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Benfica at 81%. The model puts the draw at 13%. The model puts Heart of Midlothian at 6%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Benfica. Benfica is priced at 1.175. The draw is priced at 7.2. Heart of Midlothian is priced at 15.
The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 51% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Benfica or Heart of Midlothian?
Our model rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 81% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.