FC Salzburg vs Pafos: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
FC Salzburgvs
PafosThe model puts FC Salzburg at 56%. The model leans toward FC Salzburg. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Pafos have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
- FC Salzburg is priced at 1.71.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 11 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts FC Salzburg at 56%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Pafos at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward FC Salzburg. FC Salzburg is priced at 1.71. The draw is priced at 3.84. Pafos is priced at 4.8.
Pafos have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, FC Salzburg or Pafos?
Our model rates FC Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for FC Salzburg vs Pafos?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.