Marathon vs CA Independiente Siguatepeque: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Marathonvs
CA Independiente SiguatepequeThe model puts Marathon at 59%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Marathon is priced at 1.54.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Marathon at 59%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts CA Independiente Siguatepeque at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Marathon. Marathon is priced at 1.54. The draw is priced at 3.66. CA Independiente Siguatepeque is priced at 5.59.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Marathon or CA Independiente Siguatepeque?
Our model rates Marathon as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Marathon vs CA Independiente Siguatepeque?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
League table
Honduras. Liga Nacional| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Motagua | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Real C.D. Espana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Genesis PN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Club Deportivo Olimpia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 | Marathon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Lobos UPNFM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Estrella Roja de Arauli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Olancho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Choloma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 11 |  Platense Puerto Cortes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 12 |  Juticalpa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.