Valerenga vs Bodo-Glimt: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Valerengavs
Bodo-GlimtThe model puts Bodo-Glimt at 66%. The model leans toward Bodo-Glimt. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bodo-Glimt.
- +The head-to-head record favours Bodo-Glimt (1-0-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Valerenga have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bodo-Glimt have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Valerenga have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bodo-Glimt is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Valerenga at 16%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Bodo-Glimt at 66%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Bodo-Glimt. Valerenga is priced at 5.8. The draw is priced at 4.98. Bodo-Glimt is priced at 1.47.
Valerenga have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Bodo-Glimt have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Valerenga have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Bodo-Glimt have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Valerenga or Bodo-Glimt?
Our model rates Bodo-Glimt as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Bodo-Glimt?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Valerenga wins, 0 draws, 5 Bodo-Glimt wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo-Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41:11 | 38 |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 37:14 | 37 |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 32:17 | 34 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 22:18 | 25 |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 28:22 | 24 |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 33:27 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:19 | 22 |
| 8 |  HamKam | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 23:26 | 21 |
| 9 | Valerenga | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 22:27 | 20 |
| 10 |  Rosenborg | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 21:21 | 18 |
| 11 |  Fredrikstad | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 16:27 | 17 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 13:21 | 15 |
| 13 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 14 |  Aalesunds | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 21:35 | 13 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 13:25 | 12 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 16 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 16:37 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.