Orgryte vs AIK: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Orgrytevs
AIKThe model puts AIK at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Orgryte.
- −The head-to-head record favours Orgryte (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Orgryte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AIK have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orgryte have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AIK is priced at 2.2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Orgryte at 36%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts AIK at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Orgryte is priced at 2.967. The draw is priced at 3.62. AIK is priced at 2.2.
Orgryte have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. AIK have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Orgryte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. AIK have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Orgryte or AIK?
Our model rates AIK as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Orgryte vs AIK?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Orgryte wins, 0 draws, 2 AIK wins.
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 15 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 42:17 | 41 |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 33:15 | 27 |
| 3 |  Djurgardens | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 33:15 | 26 |
| 4 |  Hacken | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 28:23 | 25 |
| 5 |  Malmo | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 30:25 | 23 |
| 6 | AIK | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:21 | 22 |
| 7 |  Vasteras SK | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 8 |  Elfsborg | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 |  GAIS | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19:15 | 20 |
| 10 |  Kalmar | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 19:21 | 18 |
| 11 |  Mjallby | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20:19 | 17 |
| 12 |  Brommapojkarna | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 20:24 | 17 |
| 13 |  Goteborg | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19:33 | 16 |
| 14 | Orgryte | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 17:33 | 13 |
| 15 |  Degerfors | 15 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 12:26 | 10 |
| 16 |  Halmstads | 15 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 11:31 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.