Mjallby vs Elfsborg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mjallbyvs
ElfsborgThe model puts Mjallby at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Mjallby.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Mjallby have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Elfsborg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mjallby have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Mjallby is priced at 2.53.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mjallby at 39%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Elfsborg at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Mjallby is priced at 2.53. The draw is priced at 3.3. Elfsborg is priced at 2.68.
Mjallby have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Elfsborg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Mjallby have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Mjallby are on 2 wins in a row. Elfsborg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mjallby or Elfsborg?
Our model rates Mjallby as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mjallby vs Elfsborg?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Mjallby wins, 3 draws, 2 Elfsborg wins.
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 15 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 42:17 | 41 |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 33:15 | 27 |
| 3 |  Djurgardens | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 33:15 | 26 |
| 4 |  Hacken | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 28:23 | 25 |
| 5 |  Malmo | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 30:25 | 23 |
| 6 |  AIK | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:21 | 22 |
| 7 |  Vasteras SK | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 8 | Elfsborg | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 |  GAIS | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19:15 | 20 |
| 10 |  Kalmar | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 19:21 | 18 |
| 11 | Mjallby | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20:19 | 17 |
| 12 |  Brommapojkarna | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 20:24 | 17 |
| 13 |  Goteborg | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19:33 | 16 |
| 14 |  Orgryte | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 17:33 | 13 |
| 15 |  Degerfors | 15 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 12:26 | 10 |
| 16 |  Halmstads | 15 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 11:31 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.