Mlada Boleslav vs AC Sparta Prague: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mlada Boleslavvs
AC Sparta PragueThe model puts AC Sparta Prague at 55%. The model leans toward AC Sparta Prague. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours AC Sparta Prague (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Mlada Boleslav have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AC Sparta Prague have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mlada Boleslav have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AC Sparta Prague is priced at 1.71.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mlada Boleslav at 22%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts AC Sparta Prague at 55%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward AC Sparta Prague. Mlada Boleslav is priced at 4.275. The draw is priced at 3.94. AC Sparta Prague is priced at 1.71.
Mlada Boleslav have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. AC Sparta Prague have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Mlada Boleslav have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. AC Sparta Prague have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. AC Sparta Prague are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mlada Boleslav or AC Sparta Prague?
Our model rates AC Sparta Prague as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs AC Sparta Prague?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Mlada Boleslav wins, 1 draws, 4 AC Sparta Prague wins.
League table
Czech Republic. Chance Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Slavia Prague | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Jablonec | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Teplice | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 4 |
| 5 |  Zbrojovka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 6 |  Hradec Kralove | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Slovan Liberec | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 8 | AC Sparta Prague | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:4 | 3 |
| 9 |  Banik Ostrava | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Sigma Olomouc | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 11 |  Artis Brno | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 1 |
| 12 |  Viktoria Plzen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 13 |  Bohemians 1905 Prague | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  1. Slovacko | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 15 |  Zlin | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 16 |  Pardubice | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.