Millonarios vs Deportivo Pasto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Millonariosvs
Deportivo PastoThe model puts Millonarios at 67%. The model leans toward Millonarios. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Deportivo Pasto (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Millonarios have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Millonarios have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Millonarios is priced at 1.36.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Millonarios at 67%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Deportivo Pasto at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Millonarios. Millonarios is priced at 1.36. The draw is priced at 4.5. Deportivo Pasto is priced at 8.6.
Millonarios have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Pasto have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Millonarios have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Millonarios are on 2 wins in a row. Deportivo Pasto have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Pasto are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Millonarios or Deportivo Pasto?
Our model rates Millonarios as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Millonarios vs Deportivo Pasto?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Millonarios wins, 1 draws, 4 Deportivo Pasto wins.
League table
Colombia. Categoria Primera A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  America de Cali | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Independiente Medellin | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Deportes Tolima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Aguilas Doradas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Atletico Bucaramanga | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 6 |  Once Caldas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 4 |
| 7 |  Club Llaneros | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Club Atletico Nacional SA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Deportivo Cali | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Fortaleza Zipaquira | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 12 |  Club Independiente Santa Fe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 13 |  Alianza Valledupar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  Deportivo Pereira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Cucuta Deportivo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 0 |
| 17 |  Junior de Barranquilla | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Internacional de Bogota | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Jaguares de Cordoba | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:5 | 0 |
| 20 |  Boyaca Chico | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.