Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Grazer AKvs
Austria LustenauThe model puts Grazer AK at 44%. The model leans toward Grazer AK. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Austria Lustenau.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Grazer AK have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Austria Lustenau have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Grazer AK have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Grazer AK is priced at 2.06.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Grazer AK at 44%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Austria Lustenau at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Grazer AK. Grazer AK is priced at 2.06. The draw is priced at 3.4. Austria Lustenau is priced at 3.48.
Grazer AK have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Austria Lustenau have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Grazer AK have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Austria Lustenau have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Grazer AK or Austria Lustenau?
Our model rates Grazer AK as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Grazer AK wins, 2 draws, 2 Austria Lustenau wins.
Odds movement
League table
Austria. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wolfsberger AC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  LASK Linz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Rapid Wien | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  FC Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Ried | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 |  Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  WSG Tirol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Hartberg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 10 |  Rheindorf Altach | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 11 | Grazer AK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 12 |  Austria Wien | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.