Cincinnati vs New York City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cincinnativs
New York CityThe model puts Cincinnati at 47%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Cincinnati score more per game (3.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Cincinnati.
- +Cincinnati creates more chances (16 vs 9 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −New York City controls more of the ball (52% vs 58%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Cincinnati have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cincinnati have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cincinnati is priced at 2.06.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cincinnati at 47%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts New York City at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Cincinnati. Cincinnati is priced at 2.06. The draw is priced at 4.28. New York City is priced at 2.99.
Cincinnati have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. New York City have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cincinnati have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. New York City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cincinnati average 3 goals per game this season. Cincinnati average 52% possession. New York City average 1 goals per game this season. New York City average 58% possession.
The model gives 71% for both teams to score. The model gives 74% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cincinnati or New York City?
Our model rates Cincinnati as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cincinnati vs New York City?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Cincinnati wins, 3 draws, 6 New York City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.