D.C. United vs New England Revolution: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
D.C. Unitedvs
New England RevolutionThe model puts D.C. United at 54%. The model leans toward D.C. United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours D.C. United (11-1-3).
- +D.C. United score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Recent form favours D.C. United.
- +D.C. United creates more chances (14 vs 9 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- D.C. United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New England Revolution have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- D.C. United have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- D.C. United is priced at 1.995.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts D.C. United at 54%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts New England Revolution at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward D.C. United. D.C. United is priced at 1.995. The draw is priced at 3.94. New England Revolution is priced at 3.34.
D.C. United have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. New England Revolution have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
D.C. United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. New England Revolution have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
D.C. United average 2 goals per game this season. D.C. United average 43% possession. New England Revolution average 1 goals per game this season. New England Revolution average 46% possession.
The model gives 55% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, D.C. United or New England Revolution?
Our model rates D.C. United as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for D.C. United vs New England Revolution?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 11 D.C. United wins, 1 draws, 3 New England Revolution wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.