USA. MLS

New York Red Bulls vs Nashville: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

New York Red Bullsvs

Nashville

Our predictionNashville to win

Model score: Low · 17/100

Score hint: 1-2

The model puts Nashville at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−New York Red Bulls score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
+Recent form favours Nashville.
−New York Red Bulls creates more chances (13 vs 10 shots per game).
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · New York Red Bulls37%Draw22%2 · Nashville41%

1 · New York Red BullsDraw2 · Nashville

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.63+3.2%

O/U 2.5Under 2.52.50+3.0%

1X2New York Red Bulls2.73+2.7%

1X2Draw4.12-1.3%

1X2Nashville2.25-1.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.56New York Red Bulls

1.51Nashville

Over 2.5 goals59%

Both teams to score62%

Recent form

New York Red BullsLLWDL

NashvilleLWLWD

Most likely scorelines

1-110.9%

2-18.5%

1-28.2%

1-07.2%

0-17.0%

2-26.4%

Team strength rating

New York Red Bulls

Nashville

Match DNA

New York Red Bulls Nashville

Key points

New York Red Bulls have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Nashville have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York Red Bulls have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Nashville is priced at 2.25.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Nashville win2.25Fair (-1.4%)

Double chanceNashville or draw—Info

Total goalsOver 2.51.51Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	7	5	3	1
1	7	11	8	4	2
2	6	9	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	2
4	1	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts New York Red Bulls at 37%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Nashville at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.

The market frames this as a close contest. New York Red Bulls is priced at 2.725. The draw is priced at 4.12. Nashville is priced at 2.25.

New York Red Bulls have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Nashville have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

New York Red Bulls have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Nashville have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 52% possession. Nashville average 1 goals per game this season. Nashville average 51% possession.

The model gives 62% for both teams to score. The model gives 59% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, New York Red Bulls or Nashville?

Our model rates Nashville as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Nashville?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 1 New York Red Bulls wins, 3 draws, 2 Nashville wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	3	4	38:17	34
2	Los Angeles	19	10	5	4	35:19	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	5	3	37:24	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	6	2	27:24	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	6	3	29:25	27
6	Dallas	18	7	5	6	32:25	27
7	St. Louis City	18	7	6	5	24:24	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	8	3	33:33	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	7	3	20:22	24
10	Minnesota United	18	6	6	6	20:25	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	10	1	27:25	22
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	5	7	7	24:29	22
13	San Diego	18	5	7	6	32:29	21
14	Austin	18	4	9	5	22:36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	12	2	18:46	14