Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Los Angeles Galaxyvs
San Jose EarthquakesThe model puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −San Jose Earthquakes score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours San Jose Earthquakes (3-3-9).
- +Los Angeles Galaxy creates more chances (14 vs 9 shots per game).
- +Los Angeles Galaxy controls more of the ball (52% vs 44%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Los Angeles Galaxy have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Los Angeles Galaxy is priced at 2.33.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 41%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Los Angeles Galaxy is priced at 2.33. The draw is priced at 4.22. San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 2.59.
Los Angeles Galaxy have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. San Jose Earthquakes have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Los Angeles Galaxy have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. San Jose Earthquakes have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Los Angeles Galaxy average 1 goals per game this season. Los Angeles Galaxy average 52% possession. San Jose Earthquakes average 2 goals per game this season. San Jose Earthquakes average 44% possession.
The model gives 61% for both teams to score. The model gives 59% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Los Angeles Galaxy or San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model rates Los Angeles Galaxy as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Los Angeles Galaxy wins, 3 draws, 9 San Jose Earthquakes wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.