Portland Timbers vs San Diego: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Portland Timbersvs
San DiegoThe model puts Portland Timbers at 49%. The model leans toward Portland Timbers. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Portland Timbers score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −San Diego controls more of the ball (52% vs 62%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Portland Timbers have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Diego have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Portland Timbers is priced at 1.97.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Portland Timbers at 49%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts San Diego at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Portland Timbers. Portland Timbers is priced at 1.97. The draw is priced at 4.5. San Diego is priced at 3.096.
Portland Timbers have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. San Diego have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Portland Timbers have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. San Diego have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Portland Timbers average 2 goals per game this season. Portland Timbers average 52% possession. San Diego average 1 goals per game this season. San Diego average 62% possession.
The model gives 59% for both teams to score. The model gives 60% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Portland Timbers or San Diego?
Our model rates Portland Timbers as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Portland Timbers vs San Diego?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 3 Portland Timbers wins, 1 draws, 3 San Diego wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 | San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.