Toronto vs Charlotte: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Torontovs
CharlotteThe model puts Toronto at 48%. The model leans toward Toronto. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Toronto score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Recent form favours Toronto.
- +Toronto creates more chances (13 vs 9 shots per game).
- +The head-to-head record favours Toronto (5-1-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Toronto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Charlotte have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toronto have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Toronto is priced at 2.3.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Toronto at 48%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Charlotte at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Toronto is priced at 2.3. The draw is priced at 3.94. Charlotte is priced at 2.744.
Toronto have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Charlotte have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Toronto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Charlotte have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Toronto average 2 goals per game this season. Toronto average 47% possession. Charlotte average 1 goals per game this season. Charlotte average 43% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Toronto or Charlotte?
Our model rates Toronto as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Toronto vs Charlotte?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 5 Toronto wins, 1 draws, 3 Charlotte wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.