Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Philadelphia Unionvs
Inter MiamiThe model puts Philadelphia Union at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Philadelphia Union.
- −Inter Miami score more per game (1.0 at home vs 3.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Philadelphia Union (8-3-4).
- −Inter Miami controls more of the ball (48% vs 57%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Philadelphia Union have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inter Miami have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Philadelphia Union is priced at 2.46.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Philadelphia Union at 41%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Inter Miami at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Philadelphia Union is priced at 2.46. The draw is priced at 4.26. Inter Miami is priced at 2.425.
Philadelphia Union have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Inter Miami have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Philadelphia Union have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Philadelphia Union are on 2 wins in a row. Inter Miami have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Philadelphia Union average 1 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union average 48% possession. Inter Miami average 3 goals per game this season. Inter Miami average 57% possession.
The model gives 72% for both teams to score. The model gives 74% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Philadelphia Union or Inter Miami?
Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Philadelphia Union wins, 3 draws, 4 Inter Miami wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.