Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vancouver Whitecapsvs
Houston DynamoThe model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 69%. The model leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Vancouver Whitecaps score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Recent form favours Houston Dynamo.
- +Vancouver Whitecaps creates more chances (18 vs 14 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Vancouver Whitecaps controls more of the ball (54% vs 45%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Vancouver Whitecaps have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.435.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 69%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Houston Dynamo at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.435. The draw is priced at 5.1. Houston Dynamo is priced at 6.15.
Vancouver Whitecaps have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Houston Dynamo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Vancouver Whitecaps have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Vancouver Whitecaps are on 2 wins in a row. Houston Dynamo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Vancouver Whitecaps average 3 goals per game this season. Vancouver Whitecaps average 54% possession. Houston Dynamo average 2 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 45% possession.
The model gives 61% for both teams to score. The model gives 85% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vancouver Whitecaps or Houston Dynamo?
Our model rates Vancouver Whitecaps as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Vancouver Whitecaps wins, 5 draws, 4 Houston Dynamo wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.