Seattle Sounders vs Austin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Seattle Soundersvs
AustinThe model puts Seattle Sounders at 61%. The model leans toward Seattle Sounders. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Seattle Sounders score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Seattle Sounders creates more chances (16 vs 9 shots per game).
- +Seattle Sounders controls more of the ball (52% vs 41%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Austin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Seattle Sounders is priced at 1.635.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Seattle Sounders at 61%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Austin at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Seattle Sounders. Seattle Sounders is priced at 1.635. The draw is priced at 4.38. Austin is priced at 4.66.
Seattle Sounders have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Austin have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Austin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Seattle Sounders average 2 goals per game this season. Seattle Sounders average 52% possession. Austin average 1 goals per game this season. Austin average 41% possession.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 59% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Seattle Sounders or Austin?
Our model rates Seattle Sounders as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Seattle Sounders vs Austin?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 3 Seattle Sounders wins, 3 draws, 5 Austin wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.