Minnesota United vs Atlanta United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Minnesota Unitedvs
Atlanta UnitedThe model puts Minnesota United at 58%. The model leans toward Minnesota United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Minnesota United score more per game (1.0 at home vs 0.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Atlanta United.
- +The head-to-head record favours Minnesota United (4-1-2).
- +Minnesota United creates more chances (15 vs 13 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Minnesota United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlanta United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Minnesota United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Minnesota United is priced at 1.685.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 24 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Minnesota United at 58%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Atlanta United at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Minnesota United. Minnesota United is priced at 1.685. The draw is priced at 4.26. Atlanta United is priced at 4.44.
Minnesota United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Atlanta United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Minnesota United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlanta United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Minnesota United average 1 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 50% possession. Atlanta United average 0 goals per game this season. Atlanta United average 50% possession.
The model gives 23% for both teams to score. The model gives 19% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Minnesota United or Atlanta United?
Our model rates Minnesota United as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Minnesota United vs Atlanta United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 4 Minnesota United wins, 1 draws, 2 Atlanta United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 | Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.