Monterrey vs Orlando City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Monterreyvs
Orlando CityThe model puts Monterrey at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Monterrey.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Monterrey have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Orlando City have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Monterrey is priced at 2.3.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Monterrey at 43%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Orlando City at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Monterrey is priced at 2.3. The draw is priced at 3.62. Orlando City is priced at 2.764.
Monterrey have 2 wins in their last 3 matches. Orlando City have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 67% for both teams to score. The model gives 68% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Monterrey or Orlando City?
Our model rates Monterrey as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Monterrey vs Orlando City?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
North American. Leagues Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 | Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Atletico San Luis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Club Necaxa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Deportivo Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Atlante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Puebla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Tigres de la UANL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Pumas UNAM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Tijuana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Leon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.