Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Heart of Midlothianvs
Dundee UnitedThe model puts Heart of Midlothian at 55%. The model leans toward Heart of Midlothian. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Dundee United (3-3-9).
- −Heart of Midlothian are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Heart of Midlothian have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dundee United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Heart of Midlothian will be without Almeida Santos, Dahle Borchgrevink, Kingsley S., Findlay S., Halkett.
- Dundee United will be without Thomson.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 12 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Heart of Midlothian at 55%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Dundee United at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Heart of Midlothian. Heart of Midlothian is priced at 1.635. The draw is priced at 4.05. Dundee United is priced at 4.785.
Heart of Midlothian have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Dundee United have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Heart of Midlothian have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Dundee United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Heart of Midlothian average 1 goals per game this season. Heart of Midlothian average 49% possession. Dundee United average 1 goals per game this season. Dundee United average 46% possession.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Heart of Midlothian or Dundee United?
Our model rates Heart of Midlothian as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Heart of Midlothian wins, 3 draws, 9 Dundee United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Heart of Midlothian
- 0Reus Reddis
- 0Milne
- 0McCarthy Ja.
- 0Mcentee O.
- 0Altena
- 0Mendy
- 0Renaud
- 0Kyziridis A.
- 0Braga
- 0Miller
- 0Ba Sy
- Almeida Santos (Missing Player)
- Dahle Borchgrevink (Missing Player)
- Kingsley S. (Missing Player)
- Findlay S. (Missing Player)
- Halkett (Missing Player)
Dundee United
- 0Walton J.
- 0Ferry W.
- 0Forbes
- 0Esselink
- 0Rawlins
- 0Agyei
- 0Tait
- 0Sevelj
- 0Sapsford
- 0Rose
- 0Randall
- Thomson (3)
League table
Scotland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St. Mirren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  St. Johnstone | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Aberdeen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Celtic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Kilmarnock | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 9 | Heart of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 11 |  Dundee | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 12 |  Falkirk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.