Kilmarnock vs Celtic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Kilmarnockvs
CelticThe model puts Celtic at 70%. The model leans toward Celtic. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Celtic (2-1-12).
- +Recent form favours Kilmarnock.
- +Kilmarnock are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Kilmarnock have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Celtic have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Kilmarnock will be without Daniels, Meier Jo..
- Celtic will be without Filipe J..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Kilmarnock at 13%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Celtic at 70%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Celtic. Kilmarnock is priced at 7.27. The draw is priced at 5. Celtic is priced at 1.37.
Kilmarnock have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Celtic have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Kilmarnock have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Celtic have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Kilmarnock average 3 goals per game this season. Kilmarnock average 45% possession. Celtic average 1 goals per game this season. Celtic average 66% possession.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 69% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Kilmarnock or Celtic?
Our model rates Celtic as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Kilmarnock vs Celtic?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Kilmarnock wins, 1 draws, 12 Celtic wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Kilmarnock
- 0Stryjek
- 0Schjonning-Larsen
- 0Stanger
- 0Schilte-Brown
- 0Ring
- 0Kiltie
- 0Tshibola
- 0Lowery
- 0Clescenco
- 0Hugill
- 0John-Jules
- Daniels (Missing Player)
- Meier Jo. (Questionable)
Celtic
- 0Sinisalo V.
- 0Tierney K.
- 0Trusty A.
- 0Carter-Vickers
- 0Johnston
- 0Engels
- 0McGregor C.
- 0Nygren B.
- 0Duran
- 0Hogh
- 0Jahn
- Filipe J. (Missing Player)
League table
Scotland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St. Mirren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  St. Johnstone | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Aberdeen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 | Celtic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Dundee United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 | Kilmarnock | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 9 |  Heart of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 11 |  Dundee | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 12 |  Falkirk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.