Dundee vs Aberdeen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dundeevs
AberdeenThe model puts Aberdeen at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Aberdeen.
- +The head-to-head record favours Aberdeen (2-0-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Dundee have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aberdeen have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dundee have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Aberdeen will be without Yengi.
- Aberdeen is priced at 2.48.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Dundee at 32%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Aberdeen at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Dundee is priced at 2.75. The draw is priced at 3.28. Aberdeen is priced at 2.48.
Dundee have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Aberdeen have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Dundee have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Aberdeen have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Aberdeen are on 5 wins in a row.
Dundee average 0 goals per game this season. Dundee average 34% possession. Aberdeen average 2 goals per game this season. Aberdeen average 51% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dundee or Aberdeen?
Our model rates Aberdeen as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dundee vs Aberdeen?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Dundee wins, 0 draws, 4 Aberdeen wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Dundee
- 0Goodman
- 0Odutayo
- 0Bevan
- 0Astley
- 0Wright Dr.
- 0Ethan Hamilton
- 0Finnigan
- 0Reilly
- 0Westley J.
- 0Bevan
- 0Murray
Aberdeen
- 0Muller
- 0Guinness-Walker N.
- 0Happe
- 0Maio
- 0Cadden
- 0Ronan C.
- 0Aremu
- 0Lyons
- 0Yogane
- 0Nisbet K.
- 0Olusanya
- Yengi (Missing Player)
League table
Scotland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St. Mirren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  St. Johnstone | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 | Aberdeen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Celtic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Dundee United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Kilmarnock | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 9 |  Heart of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 11 | Dundee | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 12 |  Falkirk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.