Motherwell vs Falkirk: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Motherwellvs
FalkirkThe model puts Motherwell at 54%. The model leans toward Motherwell. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Motherwell (8-5-2).
- −Motherwell are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Falkirk are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Motherwell have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Falkirk have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Motherwell have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Motherwell will be without Bjorgolfsson, Stamatelopoulos, McGinn, McGhee J., O'Donnell Steph., Hendry C..
- Falkirk will be without Lang To., Nesbitt A., Adams.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 12 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Motherwell at 54%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Falkirk at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Motherwell. Motherwell is priced at 1.81. The draw is priced at 3.74. Falkirk is priced at 4.16.
Motherwell have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Falkirk have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Motherwell have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Falkirk have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Motherwell average 2 goals per game this season. Motherwell average 52% possession. Falkirk average 0 goals per game this season. Falkirk average 58% possession.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Motherwell or Falkirk?
Our model rates Motherwell as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Motherwell vs Falkirk?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Motherwell wins, 5 draws, 2 Falkirk wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Motherwell
- 0Paulsen
- 0Longelo R.
- 0Moormann
- 0Girdwood-Reich
- 0Sparrow
- 0Fadinger L.
- 0Priestman O.
- 0Charles-Cook R.
- 0Lowry
- 0Vogt
- 0Maswanhise
- Bjorgolfsson (Questionable)
- Stamatelopoulos (Missing Player)
- McGinn (Missing Player)
- McGhee J. (Missing Player)
- O'Donnell Steph. (Missing Player)
- Hendry C. (Missing Player)
Falkirk
- 0Bain S.
- 0Tanser
- 0Henderson
- 0Melniks D.
- 0Strain R.
- 0Sibbald
- 0McMillan
- 0Laidlaw
- 0Yeats
- 0Gardner
- 0Parkinson
- Lang To. (Questionable)
- Nesbitt A. (Missing Player)
- Adams (Missing Player)
League table
Scotland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St. Mirren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  St. Johnstone | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Aberdeen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Celtic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Dundee United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Kilmarnock | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 9 |  Heart of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 11 |  Dundee | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 12 | Falkirk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.