Caspiy Aktau vs Ulytau: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Caspiy Aktauvs
UlytauThe model puts Caspiy Aktau at 45%. The model leans toward Caspiy Aktau. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Caspiy Aktau.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Caspiy Aktau have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ulytau have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Caspiy Aktau have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Caspiy Aktau is priced at 2.238.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Caspiy Aktau at 45%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Ulytau at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Caspiy Aktau is priced at 2.238. The draw is priced at 3.51. Ulytau is priced at 3.01.
Caspiy Aktau have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Ulytau have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Caspiy Aktau have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Caspiy Aktau are on 2 wins in a row. Ulytau have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Caspiy Aktau or Ulytau?
Our model rates Caspiy Aktau as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Caspiy Aktau vs Ulytau?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Caspiy Aktau wins, 1 draws, 1 Ulytau wins.
Odds movement
League table
Kazakhstan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ordabasy | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 36:15 | 46 |
| 2 |  Kairat | 20 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 39:14 | 45 |
| 3 |  Astana | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 31:20 | 35 |
| 4 |  Okzhetpes | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 29:27 | 33 |
| 5 |  Aktobe | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 29:24 | 31 |
| 6 |  Elimai | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:23 | 28 |
| 7 | Ulytau | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 16:20 | 27 |
| 8 |  Jenis | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 17:23 | 23 |
| 9 |  Kyzylzhar | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 23:28 | 22 |
| 10 |  Tobol Kostanay | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 21:28 | 22 |
| 11 | Caspiy Aktau | 20 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 21:28 | 21 |
| 12 |  Kaysar | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15:22 | 20 |
| 13 |  Atyrau | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14:18 | 19 |
| 14 |  Zhetysu | 20 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 23:30 | 19 |
| 15 |  Irtysh Pavlodar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19:25 | 17 |
| 16 |  Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 16:30 | 16 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.