Partick Thistle vs Livingston: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Partick Thistlevs
LivingstonThe model puts Partick Thistle at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Livingston.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Partick Thistle have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Livingston have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Partick Thistle have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Partick Thistle is priced at 2.32.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Partick Thistle at 38%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Livingston at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Partick Thistle is priced at 2.32. The draw is priced at 2.96. Livingston is priced at 3.025.
Partick Thistle have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Livingston have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Partick Thistle have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Livingston have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Partick Thistle or Livingston?
Our model rates Partick Thistle as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Partick Thistle vs Livingston?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Partick Thistle wins, 1 draws, 2 Livingston wins.
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livingston | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Ayr United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 | Partick Thistle | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Raith Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 |  Stenhousemuir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 |  Inverness | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 7 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 |  Greenock Morton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 9 |  Queen's Park | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Arbroath | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.