Arbroath vs Inverness: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Arbroathvs
InvernessThe model puts Inverness at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Arbroath.
- +The head-to-head record favours Inverness (2-0-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Arbroath have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inverness have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arbroath have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Inverness is priced at 2.19.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Arbroath at 33%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Inverness at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Arbroath is priced at 2.98. The draw is priced at 3.25. Inverness is priced at 2.19.
Arbroath have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Inverness have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Arbroath have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Inverness have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Arbroath or Inverness?
Our model rates Inverness as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Arbroath vs Inverness?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Arbroath wins, 0 draws, 4 Inverness wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Livingston | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Ayr United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Partick Thistle | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Raith Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 |  Stenhousemuir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 | Inverness | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 7 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 |  Greenock Morton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 9 |  Queen's Park | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 10 | Arbroath | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.