Pisa vs Calcio Padova: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pisavs
Calcio PadovaThe model puts Pisa at 52%. The model leans toward Pisa. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Pisa are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Calcio Padova are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pisa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Calcio Padova have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pisa have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pisa will be without Denoon, Bonfanti, Coppola.
- Calcio Padova will be without Gomez Al., Alessandro Seghetti, Diego Marcolini, Lovato.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Pisa at 52%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Calcio Padova at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Pisa. Pisa is priced at 1.8. The draw is priced at 3.44. Calcio Padova is priced at 4.52.
Pisa have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Calcio Padova have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Pisa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Calcio Padova have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pisa or Calcio Padova?
Our model rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pisa vs Calcio Padova?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 4 Pisa wins, 1 draws, 4 Calcio Padova wins.
Match statistics
Pisa
- 0Semper
- 0Leris M.
- 0Canestrelli
- 0Caracciolo
- 0Zanon
- 0Vural
- 0Loyola F.
- 0Rao
- 0Tramoni
- 0Marras
- 0Moreo
- Denoon (Missing Player)
- Bonfanti (Missing Player)
- Coppola (Missing Player)
Calcio Padova
- 0Sorrentino
- 0Dellavalle A.
- 0Pastina
- 0Sgarbi Fi.
- 0Zanimacchia
- 0Pompetti
- 0Zuelli Em.
- 0Giunti G.
- 0Carissoni
- 0Lasagna
- 0Caprari G.
- Gomez Al. (2)
- Alessandro Seghetti (2)
- Diego Marcolini (2)
- Lovato (2)
League table
Italy. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vicenza Calcio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 2 |  Mantova | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Modena | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  A.S.D. Atletico Arezzo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Sudtirol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Empoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Cesena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Ascoli Calcio 1898 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | Pisa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 | Calcio Padova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Sampdoria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Citta di Palermo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Hellas Verona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Catanzaro 1929 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 15 |  Avellino 1912 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Carrarese Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Benevento Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 19 |  Virtus Entella | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 20 |  Juve Stabia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | -2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.